5 Reasons to Believe in the Red Sox

_{Marco Scutaro has been a rare positive for the Red Sox in Sucktember. (AP Photo)}

Everybody's got a hold on hope
It's the last thing that's holding me
- Guided By Voices - "Hold On Hope"

Dark times have descended upon Red Sox Nation. Our beloved Red Sox are in the midst of their worst September collapse in franchise history. Fenway has morphed into Disney Land. Tito's job is in jeopardy. ESPN the Magazine has the worst timing in the world. And the Sox have lost seven strait series en route to a 5-16 record in Sucktember. They're as down as the Dow, but despite all of this, I offer you 5 reasons to hold onto hope, and believe in October. It may be blind faith, but it's the last thing that's holding me.

1. The Red Sox are Making the Playoffs - Despite September being a complete horror show, the Sox are still in the drivers seat, and are the ones being chased, not doing the chasing. This is important, and their outstanding play earlier in the year has afforded them this cushion to absorb the collapse thus far. Their fate is completely in their hands, if they win, they're in - it's that simple. They have a two game lead over the Rays with each Team having six games left on their schedule. If the Red Sox win four out of their last six they're in. No easy task with the way they've been playing, but the odds are still in their favor, and each win they get - or each loss the Rays take, pushes the math that much more in the Sox favor. Put it this way. This morning the Sox odds of making the playoffs are 88.9% as opposed to 8% for the Rays. Which side would you rather be on?
   
   
2. The ALDS is Only Five Games - If the playoffs started today the Red Sox would be at Detroit for a five game series. I've always been uncomfortable with the ALDS no matter how hot or cold the Sox have been heading into it because it's a shortened series. The odds are evened so much in a shorter series which allows a Team of lesser talent the ability to sneak out the Series. Now I'm not saying the Sox have less talent than the Tigers, because they don't, but they are about 200 degrees colder than them heading into the playoffs, and a shorter Series is in their favor.
   
   
3. The Red Sox Offense Still Scares Opponents - Yes the potential of facing Justin Verlander twice in five games is absolutely terrifying, but you have to remember that despite the cold September (ok, ok - FRIGID Sucktember) the Sox are still tops in the American League in almost all offensive categories:
   
   • 851 Runs - 1st in AL
   • 1537 Hits - 1st in AL
   • 342 Doubles - 1st in AL
   • 820 RBI - 1st in AL
   • .810 OPS - 1st in AL
   • .280 AVG - 2nd in AL
   • 194 HR - 3rd in AL
   I don't care who's pitching there's no way they're comfortable facing the Sox, the offense is scary good, and can easily go off for 10+ runs on any given night. If they can collectively get hot (which they have often this year) then look out. Granted our pitching staff is full of holes and question marks they shouldn't to be taken for granted by anyone.
   
   
4. The Red Sox Match-Up Well with the Yankees - I predicted back on September 2nd that the Red Sox and Yankees would meet in the ALCS and I'm standing by this prediction. I also said the Series starting tonight would most likely decide the AL East and well....nobody bats 1.000 right? (I joke because I'm sad) But seriously, the Sox match up great against the Yankees, traditionally have hit CC weirdly well - and have a left-handed lineup made to take advantage of Yankee Stadium and it's short right field porch. The Sox are 11-4 so far against the Yanks and their games are so long, strange, and unpredictable that who'd win the Series would be anyone's guess. If the Sox and Yanks do meet in the ALCS, I like our chances as much as theirs, and that's the Gods honest truth. I may need blood pressure pills though, don't know if I could handle it or not, would like to see if I could though.
   
   
5. Too Much Talent, Too Much Pride - There's just too much talent on this Team to not believe in them. Our Achilles Heel is going to end up being our pitching staff. The only pitchers I still believe in are Beckett, Lester, and Papelbon as after that it's pretty damn sketchy. But like I said, there's a lot of veterans on this team that have been through the ringer before, our offense can go toe-to-toe with anyone, and while we've been cold as cold gets - there's no reason we can't get hot again. The Sox have been schizophrenic from Day #1 of the 2011 season, wouldn't it make sense for them to get hot in October? Maybe not, but like I said, I'm holding onto hope, t's the last thing that's holding me.

Comments

[Raoul Duke]

I dig the confidence

[Ashwin Jain]

ya lot of confidence right now, which is pretty scary, but a couple of points

1. while the offense is pretty lethal, the only ace they've had success against is CC. Against CJ Wilson of the rangers, they haven't been able to do much, and the same with Verlander. As for the rays pitching staff which is stacked you've seen the results not only the last 7 games, but throughout most of the year. And that's what decides playoff winners. Pitching.

2. I trust Beckett and Lester, but even they have been very shaky in the second half. I trust Lester more, because Beckett does not have the stamina for a 200 IP season. As he is showing he doesnt pitch well through pain, and he gets whatever "pain" about a month after the all star break every year. Maybe have him just start pitching after the all star game rather than at the beginning of the season.

3. Aceves has still been strong through September. With the bullpen overworked in Setpember and not many quality starts from the starters, i'm surprised they haven't put him in the rotation. I understand his value coming out of the bullpen, but the bullpen really needs to regroup.

4. The defense is sucking completely. Way to many errors this month, which don't bode well when the pitching has not shown up. Yes they are unearned runs, but they are still runs. Defense needs to play better, so you get longer outings from the starters, and the bullpen doesnt have to come in the third inning every night.

Just an example to show why we will not be able to make it past the first round. We do not have pitching (due to injury with Bucholz yes, but Lackey and Wakefield as well). The Phillies have been beating up on everyone in the NL this year, it's basically been an amusement park ride for them it's been that easy. And look at their pitching. Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Lee, and their rookie Worley (who has put up ridiculous numbers as a number 5 starter). Sure they don't have the offense, but their pitching gives up about 3 runs a game. And you saw what they did to the Red Sox when we were on fire in the summer. We lost 2 out of 3 twice i think.

while it's good to be hopeful, this year had too many high expectations, and we will fall short. So instead, do what Boston Sports Nation does, and start cheering for the Patriots and Bruins and say goodbye to the Red Sox for this year.

[Derek Hixon]

Some awesome point Ashwin - and you're def right on more than a few points.

- I avoided the Rangers all together, they'd sweep the Sox in any round, aside from that one Series in Texas they dominated us this year.
- Aceves should be added to the trust list, my over sight there. He's without a doubt the MVP of our pitching staff.
- Defense has been atrocious, no way around it.
- The Patriots and Bruins getting back into the swing of things should help ease the pain some, still - can't help hurting some after such a great season for most of the way.

Am clinging on to any hope 'till the end, the term "die-hard" is named that way for a reason. I'm realistic though, and know while they're odds of making the playoffs are decent, beyond that.........well, not so much. It's the classic "Dumb and Dumber" 'So you're saying I have a chance!' scenario - lol.

[Flex]

Derek. My friend. Cmon here.
Put it this way. Your teams pitching staff is decimated. Lester has not been Lester and Beckett is hittable. He's not near 100%. Everyone after that is garbage. That's not even me hating. At all.
Youk is done. That guy makes your team way scarier. Pedroia has been ehhhh. And even Gonzo is not that scary to me. He had a great year but not great enough for what was expected in my opinion. Your bullpen is shaky. Papelboner is usually money but he has his moments. And he does have s rough time against the Yankees. Personally I don't see you guys making it past Tex or Detroit.
On to the Yankees. I'm not riding a high horse because we won the AL East. The rubbing it in mode passed quickly. The Yankees are flawed. But hot. And playing way better. This series which now of course will feature an AWESOME double header on Sunday is not going to be too telling from the Yanks perspective. Girardi and Cashman already said they would rest up guys and prepare for the playoffs. I'd personally like to see them try and knock the Sox out. But hey what do I know? I'm just a fan.
I have a feeling the Yankees will take 2 of 3 and you guys will tske the Rays by one game and squeak in.
If I was you I'd hope I'm wrong and that u guys sweep in epic fashion to out this past month to bed. But I highly doubt it.
See you in October if u can beat the other guys. I have my doubts the Yanks will get passed Detroit. For sure.

[Derek Hixon]

Erik, I'm gonna have to give you a good ol' fashioned - C'Mon Man!!! on the Gonzo comment.

Gonzo's hasn't had a great enough year? He's a Top 5 MVP candidate. Winning the batting title at .341, hitting over 200 hits (208), and having over 100 RBI (116) and Runs (107) while sporting a .967 OPS (better than any other Yankee) is a pretty damn great. These are the type of season you'd dream of Mark Teixeira having, who's hitting nearly 100 points below Gonzo.

I mean seriously, C'Mon Man!!!

[Derek Hixon]

For clarification - "C'Mon Man" is supposed to be said in Keyshawn Johnson's voice.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=br6Yqw0YtsU&feature=related

[Derek Hixon]

For clarification - "C'Mon Man" is supposed to be said in Keyshawn Johnson's voice.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=br6Yqw0YtsU&feature=related