SawxBlog

Re-signing Adrian Beltre Would Be a Bad Decision by the Red Sox

Adrian Beltre was everything the Sox could hope for last year, but will he be back?

Adrian Beltre is expected to decline the arbitration offered to him by the Red Sox this afternoon, which would ensure the Sox compensation in draft picks should he sign with another team. Today's the last day for players to decide to decline or not - and obviously Beltre will be declining.

Beltre's a Gold Glove defender at the hot corner who also hits for power and was amazing last year for the Red Sox. Since he's a $cott Bora$ client, and is coming off arguably the best year of his career, any team that signs him for 2011 and beyond will have to pony up both years and money. As recently as last week it looked like Beltre would not be coming back to the Red Sox as it was reported that the A's offered him five-year, $64 million deal which he declined, however, it looks like this report was false, so the Beltre Sweepstakes are still in full swing, with the Sox presumably still in it.

Beltre was a great presence in the clubhouse for the Red Sox, as long as you weren't touching his head, and he dealt with the Boston media and us Red Sox fans perfectly. It's always easier to do so when you're raking it, but still, that's not something to be overlooked in a market such as Boston. So as the Red Sox drift in the wake of losing V-Mart to Detroit, a large part of our offense from last year is gone, making the re-signing of Beltre a no-brainer right? Not so fast young Padawan.

As I've already pre-faced, Beltre was awesome for the Sox in 2010, and only being 31 years old, he still has some good years ahead of him I'm sure, but signing contracts heavy in years for ballplayers in their 30's is something that should be approached with caution.  

Looking at Beltre's numbers from last year you can see that his stats will back up what he and Bora$ will be seeking, however - from looking at his splits I found it interesting to see that his numbers at Fenway actually brought down his overall average in the four main categories. I wouldn't doubt if Theo and his Team concluded that they caught "magic in a bottle" with how well Beltre performed last year, and from my elementary analysis, it looks like Fenway was not a clear boost to his numbers.

We also have to remember that prior to last year, Beltre was somewhat of a bust in Seattle, and the Sox had taken a one-year risk on him. Beltre's combined batting average for his last five years in Seattle (2005-2009) was .266 - almost 60 points lower than his 2010 totals. This makes me very wary, that spike isn't a trend, it's an anomaly. Adding to my suspicion of Beltre's 2010 numbers is the fact that he's only hit over .300 one other year in his entire career, and surprise surprise, that was also in a contract year of his back in 2004, where he hit .334 for Los Angeles. This is all very suspect, and brings me back to my anger for not re-signing Victor Martinez.

While there may be a drop-off in defense with V-Mart, there certainly isn't with his offense, as he's a CAREER .300 hitter, not a "Only two times in my 12 year career have I hit .300" hitter like Beltre. But I've already expressed my massive displeasure in losing V-Mart, especially for the economical price we could have had him for. Now we're forced to bend to $cott Bora$, and eat a lot of years and money for an inconsistent ballplayer who's only shown up during contract years? And are we not allowed to at least question the use of steroids in this case for Beltre? Not questioning is what got baseball in the "Steroid Era" mess to begin with right? The spike in his numbers during contract years is a little too fishy for my taste, and I don't like it.

So....

What in the hell is the Red Sox plan moving forward? Where are their heads at, Liverpool? From what I've seen so far, which is nothing from them, it looks like they're preparing for another bridge year, and I'd much rather jump off that bridge then walk over it. If they keep this up the Red Sox franchise will quickly be playing third fiddle to both the Patriots and Celtics (if they aren't already), and honestly, I'm fine with that, those teams at least give the impression that they're trying to win - which is more then I can say for the Red Sox.

Will John Henry owning Liverpool FC Affect the Red Sox?

 John Henry and his wife, Linda Pizzuti, over in Liverpool.

The simple answer here is yes, John Henry owning Liverpool FC will most certainly affect how he deals with the Red Sox. I've been bouncing this around in my head for a bit now, and that's the only logical conclusion I can come to, I mean, how could it not? I'm not naive enough to think that John Henry didn't own other businesses besides the Red Sox, however, he didn't own a commodity so similar to the Sox as Liverpool FC.

I think one of the main reasons Red Sox Nation as a whole is displeased with the purchase is because of how similar the franchises are to each other. They both have extremely passionate fan-bases, both have rivalries with larger markets, and both have rich traditions. As little as most Sox fans know about the Premier League, they recognize first and foremost the passion Liverpool fans have - and they see a lot of themselves in that passion, thus are threatened. This is an understandable reaction, and is taken directly from the "Step Brothers" playbook, however, I don't ever see us (the two fan bases) becoming best of friends.

What us Sox fans have to remind ourselves is that John Henry is not, nor was he ever, a Red Sox fan. The sooner we come to accept that, the sooner we can accept this purchase for what it is, a business decision. I mean, Liverpool isn't even the first franchise competing for Henry's attention, that honor would go to Roush Fenway Racing. But I believe NASCAR is something so left field for most North East baseball fans, that it was something we scoffed at, and didn't look at as a rival. We couldn't see the similarities, but they're there as well, especially the passion amongst the fans. Which again brings me back to Henry.

Before owning the Red Sox he was a partial owner of the New York Yankees. That right there should be all you need to know about how Henry feels about sports ownership. He has no loyalty to a particular franchise or town, if that franchise or town isn't going to return him a healthy profit. He wasn't helping save Fenway Park because it was a national treasure. He was saving it because it would make the ravenous fan-base happy, and in return, make him more money. That, and it's a heck of a lot cheaper to add some Monster Seats then to go through the political hoops and money needed to build a brand new stadium. Like everything Henry does, it was a calculated business decision. Bill James isn't on the Red Sox payroll because Henry loves baseball statistics, he's on the payroll to make his investment return a maximum amount of profit, Henry is a numbers man after all, and winning returns dollar signs.

There's a lot of Liverpool fans that dislike this purchase with as much passion (there's that word again) as Red Sox fans. Thankfully for both fan bases, Henry's pretty good at what he does, and he usually places the right people in the right postion to succeed. Just don't fool yourself into thinking he's on the same ownership level as Robert Kraft or George Steinbrenner. Both of whom were also crude businessmen, but were also true fans of their teams and game. Unfortunately, for Red Sox and Liverpool fans, Henry is just a crude business man, and that'll have to be enough, as long as they win.

So Long Red Sox, Victor Martinez Signs with Detroit

Victor Martinez has sadly seen his last days in a Red Sox uniform.

"Victor and vanquished never unite in substantial agreement." -Andreu Guarneri

When my Twitter Feed started blowing up with tweets about Victor Martinez leaving the Red Sox for the Detroit Tigers early yesterday afternoon, my stomach clenched too late, for the sucker punch had already landed. Losing integral players to free agency is something every fan from every franchise has had to deal with, however, losing Victor seems like a different scenario than players lost in the past.

Losing Jason Bay to the Mets last winter sprung similar feelings of angst across Red Sox Nation. Bay, much like Martinez, was a solid contributor to the Team, putting up All-Star worthy numbers while being a consummate professional and an excellent teammate. We often forget this when things are going well for players, but needless to say, Boston isn't an easy town to play in - and when you find players who contribute with grace, respect, and a humbleness it becomes a most welcome sight, especially following in the wake of blowhards and malcontents such as Manny Ramirez, Curt Schilling, and Pedro Martinez. What I'm trying to say here, is that with both Jason Bay and Victor Martinez, it was refreshing to have a star player who carried themselves like a grimy utility player, and not a prima donna.

The big difference I see between Victor Martinez and Jason Bay, however, is the positions they play. It's a hell of a lot easier to replace an outfielder who hits for power and average than it is with a catcher. And yes, I've also been force fed the numbers about how catchers numbers drastically drop-off once they hit their mid-30's - but Victor would be smack dab in the middle of his 30's at the END of a 4-year deal. And even then, the Red Sox have the in-house flexibility to move him over to 1B or DH in the last year of his deal, where he'd still be a solid contributor to the team, and for $12.5 million a year for his talents, he wouldn't be overpaid according to the market.

I know his defense was nothing to brag about behind the plate, and maybe this is part of the Sox continued overall philosophy of staying young while preaching defense, but of all the Sox players entering free agency this Hot Stove season, Martinez seemed the most valuable to the Sox today and tomorrow.

As with everything, time will tell, and looking at Bay's numbers last year, the Sox seem to have been right there, so...we'll see. The one thing this does do now is open up the market for all of baseball, and especially for the Sox. They have an extra $40 million to invest somewhere else now, the question becomes, where will it be spent?

Fenway Park E-Guide: Review

Ballpark E-Guides Fenway Park edition could be a useful tool.

Kurt Smith's "Fenway Park E-Guide" is available for download over at http://www.ballparkeguides.com/ for a very economical $5.00. This is a PDF put together to help those visiting Fenway Park get around, buy tickets, along with almost anything else you'd like to do while watching the Red Sox play in Boston. There's a lot of knowledge and research packed into the 25 pages, and you can tell that Smith did his homework while researching.

Some of the more valuble and unique sections of the guide are his Tightwad Tips, which give money saving suggestions on things such as Parking and Food. Being intimately familiar with Fenway myself, there wasn't anything new in the Guide for me, however, I could definetly see the value in it for people from out of town or those making their yearly pilgrimage to the Mecca that's Fenway.

I think a lot of value could be added to the Guide with a little more attention to the actual layout, as a lot of the information is jammed into the pages, without any discernible deliniation between sections, making them run together. Adding a table of contents, and/or a glossary would really take the Guide to the next level, and make it an invaluble tool when printed out and visiting Fenway.

All that said, for the price, and for the information that's already there, this is a recomended Guide for those not haunting Fenway on a regular basis, and for even those who do, I'm sure they'd learn something new from Smith's thourough research.

OVERALL: 7/10

Purchase "Fenway Park E-Guide" here - http://www.ballparkeguides.com/

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David Ortiz Auction to benefit Children's Fund

 The David Ortiz Children’s Fund has been helping kids since 2006.

Boston, MA – November 22, 2010 - Can’t quite make it to the Dominican Republic for the David Ortiz Celebrity Golf Classic this year?  You can still pitch in and help raise money for children in need through the online auction.

The David Ortiz Celebrity Golf Classic online auction benefits the David Ortiz Children’s Fund, a non-profit organization that provides critical care services to children in need.  The auction features a host of once-in a life time experiences, including the opportunity to learn to pitch from Red Sox Ace Clay Buchholz, a fielding lesson from American League MVP Dustin Pedroia, a legendary experience with Bobby Orr, a golf vacation in paradise and much more.  The auction can be found at http://davidortizchildrensfund.org/ and will be open until 11:59 p.m. ET on December 3, 2010 where items will then move live to the event. Online bidders will be represented by proxy on-site at the event.

Some of the fitems in this year’s auction include:

• David Ortiz Jersey Signed by 2010 Boston Red Sox Players & Coaches
• A legendary evening with Boston Bruins icon, #4, Bobby Orr
• A Golf Vacation
• Watch Big Papi in Batting Practice
• Dine like a Star at Big Papi’s Grille, with Big Papi
• The Ultimate Bruins Bruiser with Shawn Thornton (2 Tickets to Game & Meet Thorton)
• The Ultimate NASCAR Experience
• Honorary Bat Boy/Girl
• Custom Callaway Golf Bag with Red Sox Logo Signed by Red Sox
• Fielding Lesson from Dustin Pedroia
• Throw out the First Pitch at Fenway

To bid on these great items click here.

About the David Ortiz Children’s Fund

The David Ortiz Children’s Fund  (DOCF) is committed to helping children in New England and the Dominican Republic  that do not have access to the critical pediatric services they need. The DOCF is proud to partner with Massachusetts General Hospital to fulfill its mission in New England and with the International Hospital for Children to fulfill its mission in the Dominican Republic. These organizations are committed to healing as many children as possible by providing critical pediatric healthcare. Working together, these organizations are increasing the number of children that will receive lifesaving services.  For more information on the David Ortiz Children’s Fund, please visit http://www.davidortizchildrensfund.org/.

Derek Jeter to the Red Sox?

Seeing Derek Jeter in a Red Sox uniform is disturbing. (SawxBlog Illustration)

First and foremost, as the Globe already pointed out, it's not gonna happen. It makes no sense from the Red Sox perspective, and seems to go against two things the Front Office values most. Defense and Youth. This would just be a marketing ploy for the Sox, or an attempt to drive up the price on the Yankees. If anything it'd upset Yankee fans more than anything, but like I said, it's not going to happen, and if it did, I would finally start believing in the 2012 prophecies, because that above illustration just looks w.r.o.n.g.

This all said, it's going to be very interesting to see how the Yankees deal with the face of their franchise, as they may be forced to take on yet another large contract for an aging star. It seems like they're playing hard-ball with Jeter so far, but when they're basically bidding against themselves, that's a luxury they can afford, unless the Sox get involved, but like I said - not going to happen. The Mets are the only outside shot I see here, but even there, doesn't make too much sense. I hope Jeter signs and finishes his carreer with the Yanks, not only because the Yankees would be stuck with another bad contract, but because he's on the same level with that franchise as Ruth, DiMaggiio, Mantle, and Berra. And with modern free agency, seeing players like Jeter play their whole career in one place, is rarer than a perfect game.

Meet Taylor Buchholz

Taylor Buchholz is a classic low cost high reward signing by the Red Sox.

What's better than one Buchholz? Two Buchholz! The Red Sox claimed Taylor Buchholz (a distant cousin of Clay) off of waiver's recently, where he'll hopefully bolster the Sox bullpen with his right-handed arm. I look at this signing along the same lines as when the Sox signed Wade Miller to a contract in 2005. Like Taylor Buchholz, Miller had missed most of the previous season with arm troubles, but prior to injury, was a very solid player. This seems to me to be a classic case of Theo buying low, and hoping to catch some lightening in the bottle. Let's just hope it turns out better than Miller did.

Taylor was one of the best relievers for the Rockies, and back in 2004 he was the Houston Astros' top prospect and also named the "Pitcher with Best Control" by Baseball America that year. He had Tommy John surgery last year and prior to the injury he went 1-0 with a 3.75 ERA in nine relief outings. Epstein's obviously hoping he can bounce back effectively from this surgery and pitch at the level he was known for.

The 29-year-old Buchholz is out of major league options however, so the Sox are going to need to decide what they'll be doing with him prior to Spring Training. Something to keep an eye on this winter season, as the Sox are already planning on meeting and working-out with him possibly in the coming weeks so they can better asses the situation.

Quick Thoughts on Justin Upton and the Red Sox

The Red Sox have explored talks with the Diamondbacks on outfielder Justin Upton.

Theo Epstein has already hinted that he'd prefer to upgrade the club this offseason via trade, and not through free agency. While my knee jerk reaction to this isn't a good one, exploring options like Justin Upton could make a lot of sense. The one player I'd most like to see with the Sox next year is Carl Crawford, however, Crawford is now 29 years old, and according to baseball research, the prime age where a baseball player peaks is at 27. Obviously this is different for every player, however there's no denying the difference between 29 and 23.

Justin Upton is only 23 years old today, and he's yet to sniff his peak years or reach his full potential. Crawford is an amazing player, however, he may have already reached his apex, and he'll be decreasing in skills sets with each passing year, while Upton will be increasing. Lets look at their numbers from 2010.

It doesn't take long to see that Crawford had the better year, however, how close will these numbers be after 2011, and beyond that? Given their difference in age are these numbers really that far off? That's a question the front office is obviously crunching, but the real factor here is the cost for each player.

Up front Upton would take a lot of prospects from the Sox in a trade but his year-to-year salary would be very manageable. Crawford would cost the Sox no prospects, but it'd require a hell of a lot of money, and possibly a contract as long as seven years - all for a player who according to the numbers, will be declining with the passing of each year. And trust me, Sox fans may have been pissed losing A-Rod and Tex to the Yanks, but they're now locked-up in those gargantuan contracts for many years to come, and seeing how both are rapidly aging (steroids?) - it looks like the Sox did the right thing from a business standpoint.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have either of these guys in Fenway - it's just obvious it'll cost the Sox one way or the other if they choose to get Upton or Crawford, and that my friends - is what the hot stove's all about, and writing this post, I may have just convinced myself on Upton.

The Patriots Are Back - A Brief History

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady may be the best coach/QB combo of all-time. (AP Photo)

Saying that the Patriots are back is assuming that they haven't been around, which isn't very accurate of a statement. In the past decade the Patriots have been to the playoffs eight times, only missing the tournament in 2002 and 2008. During this historic run they've worn every hat a team could wear. In 2001, with America still swirling in faux patriotism from the 9/11 attacks - the country rallied behind a team of under-dogged unknowns as they went on to shock the Greatest Show on Turf in Superbowl XXXVI. It's hard to remember, but the New England region was starved for a championship at this time, and the unheralded victory swept up the region in Patriots fever.

Then the Pats started getting greedy, going on to win two more Superbowls in 2003 and 2004, gaudily making it three rings in four years. In 2003 the Patriots were starting to lose their shine to the general public, however, it wasn't until 2004 against the Philadelphia Eagles that the Patriots wore the black hat of the villain for the first time. America loves the story of the tormented underdog rising to prosperity - I like to call it the Jay Gatsby effect, and only apple pie is more American. That's why they were so popular in 2001, but by 2004 the Patriots were starting to commandeer that clean lined shiny trophy from Tiffany's - and with the Eagles recent Conference Championship woes, they were the new tormented team America rooted for, and the script was flipped on the Pats - as they were now the new bad guys.

After this third Superbowl victory you began to feel the type of venom from other fans and national commentators that only success could give birth to. It was poignant, and at times vicious (Ahem, Tom Jackson), which inevitably led to the overblown SpyGate - and that turned the Patriots from being just the bad guy, to being the evil guy. I'm not going to stoke those coals too much, however - what the Patriots were accused of were practices every other team was guilty of as well, it's just they were successful, and thus they were thrust onto the sword. The very next year in 2007, the Patriots went into full-on FU mode and were one lucky catch away from running the table on the entire league in a mean spirited fashion.

2007 was the apex of the Patriots dynasty. It was so extravagant and rich that you knew their Roman fall couldn't be too far away. Each year since 2001 players and coaches were leaving the franchise and you just wondered how long they'd be able to sustain. Their 18-1 record breaking season was a distinct FU to the entire league. "You think we had to cheat to win huh? Well, how about we beat your ass into the ground each week then. How 'bout that?" The next season in 2009 expectations were just as high for the Pats, but then the nightmare scenario happened - Tom Brady, the one irreplaceable cog to Belichick's wheel, was gone, and so thought most - was the Patriots season. While they did end up missing the playoffs, they went an impressive and respectable 11-5, making every Patriot fan proud, as the league watched in disbelief.

Losing Brady in 2008 was the expected fall of the franchise, however they rebounded with their heads held high, in possibly what was Belichick's finest year in New England. No Pats employee or fan will admit that 2009 was a success after the Ravens demolished the Pats at home in the playoffs, however, they again held steady, made the playoffs, and were a competitive team. Heading into 2010 people finally seemed to really believe that this would be the year that the Patriots would become just a "normal" team, and cross the bridge year that Theo Epstein predicted for the 2010 Red Sox. Experts were leveraging our youth as a disadvantage, especially in reference to the defense.

Something funny happened in training camp that I took strong notice of though. Throughout all of Gillette Stadium, Belichick ordered that pictures of past years success be taken down. This wasn't just a motivational ploy by a very smart coach, it was a statement to anyone paying attention in the league and beyond. The Patriots had moved on from 2001, 2003, and 2004, and most importantly, 2007. They had, for the most part, all new players and coaches, and if they wanted pictures on the wall, they'd have to get them up their on their own. Now, as we sit halfway through the season, the Patriots again are sitting alone with the best record in the league at 6-1. The experts will still point to a plethora of reasons on why the Patriots aren't that good, old habits die hard I guess. But what 2010 is showing the league is that until the combination of Belichick, Brady, and Kraft are gone, they'll continue to set leadership standards in their organization that won't allow the Patriots to become irrelevant. There's just too much pride there.

Watching the Patriots today is as fun, if not more fun, than ever before. They're still considered to be an "Evil Team" by a lot of people out there, but in the same breath they're also the underdog in a lot of those same eyes, due in large part to their youth. Seems kinda like a paradox to me, but also seems like they've come full circle. They're now winning games with second half adjustments while guys who you've never heard of make humongous plays. Rookies are congealing with wily veterans and the team over me approach is just oozing out of Foxboro, which is what New Englanders love and appreciate. They seems lucky with their schedule. They seem smart with their play. They get more experienced with each game, and they simply seem like the Patriots again, and that's why - the Patriots, are back.