So in the end both of the AL East Super Powers lost out to what may legitimately be the only Super Power in the NL, in the New York Mets. The Johan Santana Sweepstakes isn't officially over yet, as both parties still need to agree on salary and years on the contract. But for all intents and purposes what does this now mean for the final three teams that were in the running?
From the Red Sox Perspective: The Red Sox lost the potential to not only have the best rotation of this generation (Beckett, Santana, Schilling, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Buchholz), but maybe the best rotation in the past few generations, and maybe even beyond that. Plainly speaking, the rich would have gotten a whole lot richer if Santana went to Boston. The bright side to all of this is that Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury are still members of the Red Sox. The Red Sox have already had their rotation and lineup set for awhile now, and this would have been the ultimate cherry on top. The Red Sox are still favored to win the AL East and the Championship, and if anything, they may have helped to price out the Yankees from the chase, which is a huge victory unto itself, and may have always been the intention of their involvement.
From the Yankees Perspective: This obviously hurts them a lot more then the Sox because of questions that lie currently within their rotation. It's still yet to be seen how Andy Pettite is go handle the fallout from his involvement in the Mitchell Report, and no matter how you look at it Wang is not a number one starter. Gaining the services of Santana would have leveled the playing field a whole lot more in the AL East, and would have made the Yankees look much different then they did last year, which was all hitting and iffy pitching. It also hurts in the Steinbrenner sense that the crosstown Mets have a front of the line ticket selling star pitcher to help sell tickets and support their new stadium, and who'll also be on the back pages of the News and Post. Is this what A-Rod's supposed to be doing for the new Yankee Stadium? The plus for this for the Yankees is that they were also able to keep their young talent. However I think the biggest difference between the Yankee youngsters and the Sox youngsters is that, aside from Chamberlin, the young Yanks haven't really proven anything at the Big League level. But keeping young talent is never bad, and it seems like Cashman has done a great job on their farm, still, I'm surprised the Yanks didn't pull harder to make this happen, and think they lose the most out of the three teams.
From the Mets Perspective: The Mets win HUGE with this one. They win the battle of New York first and foremost, and they now have one of the best pitchers on the planet in their rotation. On top of this all the Mets didn't really give up their top, top prospects which makes me surprised the Twins didn't bite on Jacoby, but hell, I'm fine with him staying on the Sox. If Pedro can get and stay healthy, Johan may up his game much like Schilling did with him in 2004. Also Johan's been dominating in the AL, it's going to be plain scary looking at numbers he'll put up against the watered down weaker NL lineups. He's now a no brainer first pick in any fantasy baseball league you join now. For some reason I do get the sneaking suspicion that Santana's going to end up hurt (my friend Chuck's not going to love that), and I do wonder if the money and years will come back to bite the Mets in the ass, but if you can get a player like Johan you have to bite.
I'm happy. Regardless if you think Santana is gonna end up hurt or not, every single team in baseball that can afford $100+ mil contracts would sign him in a heart beat. He has been hands down the best pitcher in baseball for the last 5 years. The only health issues ever being mentioned with Santana are bone spurs in his elbow. And his physical condition and pitching delivery speak contrary to serious injury in the future. Nowhere else is anything injury related being mentioned, so your injury projection is pure speculation with no foundation and holds just as much merit as if I said Beckett is going to get hurt down the road.
Now..onto the deal. I have to feel for Twins fans. Although nobody really knows if the proposed packages from the Sox and the Yanks over the winter meetings were legit or pure speculation, it can't be argued that both teams could have given the Twins a better package and they just got greedy and it came back to bite them.
However, upon further reading, I am not sure if the lack of trade earlier wasn't the product of Santana himself. In a Buster Olney article, read the following quotes...
"An official with knowledge of discussions between the Twins' front office and Santana told 1050 ESPN New York's Andrew Marchand that when Santana gave the list of teams he was willing to waive his no-trade clause for, the Mets were on top of his list.
Santana communicated to the Twins that if he had the option of any team he could go to, the Mets would be his first choice."
and the article goes on to state...
"a package which some talent evaluators believe could be the fourth-best offer that Minnesota received during this process."
Making me wonder if Santana himself didn't threaten his no trade clause unless he got what he wanted (i.e. get traded to the Mets). In another article, I was also reading, the Tuesday deadline of "last best trade proposal" was in fact the product of Santana stating if he wasn't traded prior to spring training reporting, that he would most likely veto any trade during the season. So the Twins (out of respect...an amazing feat for ownership losing it's prized possession) took one for the team and granted Santana's wishes while they easily could have obtained more down the road.
How this impacts the Sox and the Yanks? I don't really think it impacts either team. And it could end up being a saving grace as both teams kept hold of their much more talented prospects than the Mets gave up. All in all, it would have been nice for either team to get him, but I think after the first 48 hours, both teams came to their senses and knew they weren't that desperate to trade that many marquee prospects and both teams eventually backed out.
The team that needed Santana the most got him, the two teams trying to compete for world domination held onto their immediate and future prospects and another team who is great at evaluating talent and has won 4 of the last 6 division titles with their own prospects got 4 prospects that they deemed worthy of their system.
If I was a Twins fan, I'd be pissed, but what can you do? They can't really judge a deal like this for a few years.
The only thing I would note, is that Minaya was basically laughed out of the Winter meetings with every baseball expert telling him that the Mets had no chance in hell of landing any top pitcher. Minaya kept quiet, went about his business and showed just how much the "experts" actually know. I love when things like this happen.
Posted by: Chuck | January 31, 2008 at 03:49 PM
No one would ever doubt or question Johan's abilitiesa and if he remains healthy, he should not only dominate the very weak National League, but baseball in general. My only question mark would be the Big Apple itself. There is a long line of great athletes that just couldn't make the transition from a small town market like Minnesota to the intense scrutiny and criticism that NYC has to offer. This can have a huge impact on a player over time and it will be very interesting to see how Johan responds under the microscope of New York sports.
Posted by: Chris Hixon | February 02, 2008 at 11:38 AM
Chuck all I can really say here is congrats, it's a huge pickup for the Mets and I think automatically makes them the favorite in the NL. And yes that was 100% pure speculation on my part, and speculation that I hope's completely wrong.
It is interesting how it seems the Mets were always his first choice, but in reality it makes perfect sense. He'd be in the biggest market in baseball, with a loyal fanbase, and would give him the ability to put up some even more impressive numbers then he did in the AL. Also, since he'll be on the other side of 30 now, seems to be the perfect time to made the transition.
Like Chris said, it'll be interesting to see how he reacts in NY, but with a player of his caliber, I'd excpect nothing but good. Congrats Met fans, after what happened last year you deserved this way more.
Posted by: Derek Hixon | February 02, 2008 at 02:05 PM