Do You Really Want to Re-Sign Iron Mike Lowell?

Carlos Pena could be an attractive option to bring back to Boston in '08. (SawxBlog Illustration)

It seems like it was only yesterday that the Red Sox were in Colorado celebrating their World Series Championship, however there's no rest for the weary, and the Red Sox have already been busy getting ready for the 2008 season, as the winter GM meetings are underway. It's been rather universal that Red Sox Nation is more then yearning for the re-signing of Mike Lowell, and this goes all the way from Jimmy at your local pub to Varitek at the Rolling Rally. I mean, even by looking at the poll that's up here at SawxBlog the response has been overwhelming in the favor of re-signing Lowell, with Mikey getting 78% of the total vote thus far.

Now I'm as big as a Mike Lowell fan as there is out there (nobody else could have replaced Bill Mueller better), and trust me, if they sign Mike Lowell I'll be beyond happy, however I'm not too sure if it'd be the smartest thing for the Red Sox to do. Mike Lowell will be in his mid-thirties at the start of spring training next year and he won't be getting any younger over the next 3-4 years. Lowell will most likely be able to get a 4 year deal on the market, which honestly may be too long of a commitment to a player who'll be at the end of his career at the end of the contract. The best deal from a Red Sox standpoint would be to offer him two guaranteed years with an option for a third year if he stays healthy, but honestly, I don't see Lowell giving the Sox that large of a home team discount.

Iron Mike may be viewed by management under the same mold that they view Jason Varitek, which would bode well for Lowell. Mike brings a veteran leadership, professionalism, and respectability to the clubhouse that is hard to find in a player. It's been largely documented with how he can often bridge the gap between the Spanish speaking players and the English speaking players, and he also seems to thrive under the pressure of Boston. Also, if you're bating behind Manny and Ortiz your numbers should be reflected in a positive manner, as his career year in 2007 reflects. However out of all the veteran's entering free agency over the last few years only V-Tek received the 4 years he was looking for, and I'd be shocked if they gave that to Lowell. The only other thing that may switch the balance to Lowell's side is the positive effect he can continue to have on young guys like Youk, Pedroia, and Ellsbury. The Red Sox have a young team, and they need some vets in there, so who knows.

So lets say for the sake of this post that the Red Sox don't get back Mikey for 2008, then who do you have replace him? I've touched on the whole A-Rod situation numerous times here and I'll just say right now that if the Red Sox commit the years and money it'll take to get A-Rod I'd be very disappointed in their decision. So if A-Rod's out of the picture then who else is there?

A hot name that's been mentioned over and over again is Northeastern Alum, and brief Red Sox,  Carlos Pena. Pena is only 29 years old and had a break out season last year with Tampa Bay hitting 46 HR's and driving in 121 runs. We'd have to switch Youk back to third and have Pena at first but that's not a big deal at all. This is also something else the casual fan should recognize, if we don't re-sign Lowell we don't just have to look for a 3B. According to studies by Bill James 3B is the 5th hardest position, and 1B is the easiest to play in the field. So you can always switch Youk back to 3B, where he's very capable, and then you can look at available 3B, 1B, RF, & LF which all of a sudden opens up your options for a replacement drastically. See below for a look at Bill James defensive spectrum. The left is the easiest position to play and the right is the most difficult.

1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF- 2B - SS - C

So I'm not saying it's either Lowell, A-Rod, or Pena, I just want to show that there's a lot of options out there, and of the big three I'd choose Pena based on age, money, and contract leverage. It'll be interesting to see what we offer Lowell and how we proceed from there, but I guess this is what makes the off-season so fun to watch.

In other Red Sox news, Curt Schilling and the Red Sox appear very close to making their deal official, and Schilling's even blogging about it on 38 pitches, which I can only imagine that the Red Sox aren't loving him using the public as a point of leverage. But in the same breath he does represent himself, and it is a pretty smart move, it's just interesting that he's airing things like that so not only the Red Sox can read, but other teams out there that are interested in him.

If we finalize this deal it basically leaves us with only the Lowell situation that really needs to be finalized. You never want to fall too in love with your veteran players, but guys like Lowell and Schilling make it pretty hard not to, and I'm just as excited as you are to see what happens in the next month or so. Welcome to the off-season Red Sox Nation.

Comments

[Pat]

This is the first potential pickup that I've felt good about for replacing Mike. But I wonder what would be the price, and how long would we have him? This would also mostly address a way to replace Manny, if they don't pick up his options for '09.

[lex]

It's looking like Boston has a chance at a trifecta! Even more, with the signing of Curt it looks even better for next years WS champs to repeat.

I was checking the mlb betting lines http://www.wagerweb.com/sports-betting/sporting-events-news.htmland the so called experts have us (Sox)as heavy favorites to win the WS again.

The Celtics look great and of course the Pats are amazing this year. Man great days in Boston for sure. Too bad BC lost last week we could have made it 4 Championships!

[Red Sox Talk]

Acquiring a first baseman is definitely on the Sox radar, and Pena is a great guy, but there are two big problems here:

1) You're assuming Tampa won't give Pena a contract (I think they will). I'm sure Epstein will kick the tires on a few names, including Todd Helton and Ryan Shealy, two of his longtime favorite players.

2) Youkilis is decent at third, but Lowell is a good deal better; witness Francona's decision to sit the red-hot Youk on the road in the WS. However this difference is something that could change with more experience.

[Derek Hixon]

Yeah, I think Youk could re-adjust wonderfully at first, I mean he didn't commit and error all year at third. And as Wade Boggs showed with the Yanks (*gag*) with determination and practice you can make yourself a gold glove caliber 3B (You also need some talent too).

Also I'm not too sure about Ryan Shealy because of his lack of ability to get on-base (.332 career avg) and I think for Helton it was last year or never for the Sox. We'll see though, usually once one major transaction takes place the domino effect is sure to follow soon after.

PS - Nice site by the way!

[Deversole]

I have my doubts about Lowell, but if they can get him and only take up 2 years...Might not be bad, but I have to say your thoughts on Pena are interesting....

[Chelsea]

i really hope that we keep Mike Lowell, even if it is just a short contract it would do better for us in the long run because the younger players are going to learn so much from him. He has a great possitive attitude on and off the field and of course, is a great player... over all i say we need him!

[Troy]

Heres a list of the Red Sox players that have filed for free agency :

Matt Clement, sp; Eric Gagne, rp; Eric Hinske, 1b/of; Bobby Kielty, of; Mike Lowell, 3b; Doug Mirabelli, c;

For further info see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_free_agents#Boston_Red_Sox

[Derek Hixon]

Nice link, thanks Troy!

[Jake Kilds]

I'm glad we're keeping this guy around, what an asset. And should be the CY Young winner without a doubt. I saw his post season cleats on EBay autographed.