(SawxBlog Illustration)We're only five days away from the real thing and I couldn't be any happier. The Red Sox seem to have their roster all set now leading the next few days as a final prep for the regular season. There's been a lot of talk all over baseball about how much more competitive the AL East is going to be this year, and I agree, it will be a tougher division this year as opposed to years past. The Sox finishing in third though, not a chance.
There's a lot of question marks for the Sox as Spring Training winds down, however the same is true for all teams. By all accounts and measures the Sox may be the healthiest team in the division. Schilling's healthy, Foulke is healthy, and it even seems like Boomer's knee is holding up. Our starting pitching staff (Schilling, Wakefield, Beckett, Clement, Wells) is hands down the deepest in the division. Schilling is the key link to it all though, and if he's feeling as good as he says he is, there's no reason to not expect 200+ solid innings from him. Foulke and Schilling's absence was the main difference between the 2004 & 2005 ball clubs. However we still made the postseason and still won 95 games. If that's what we get when our team's unhealthy then I'm a happy man. Basically we've replaced Bronson Arroyo for a young horse who's a former World Series MVP.
For those of you keeping track, the Red Sox now have three World Series MVP's on the team and that's only from 2001-2005. Not too bad huh? We all loved Bronson, but who'd you rather be pitching every fifth day, Josh, or Arroyo? Johnny Damon can bitch and whine about computers and heart, but the upgrade here is so obvious it's almost blinding.
Now if you shift your eyes over towards Williamsburg you'll notice a vastly improved bullpen. The Sox are starting the season with 7 out of the bullpen (Keith Foulke, Mike Timlin, Jonathan Papelbon, Julian Tavarez, David Riske, Rudy Seanez, Lenny DiNardo) and the only real weakness I see there is our lack of a premiere lefty reliever. We'll see if DiNardo can pick it up, however don't be shocked to see the Sox make a move sometime before the All-Star break. Chris Snow of the Boston Globe made a great comparsion between the 2005 bullpen and 2006 bullpen a few days ago:
"Consider: The six men expected to constitute the relief corps,
DiNardo not included, posted the following totals in 2005: 27-17, 3.21
ERA, 358 2/3 IP, 128 ER, 111 BBs, 306 K's, 35 HRs allowed. They fanned
7.68 batters per nine innings.
Boston's 2005 Opening Day bullpen
(Foulke, Timlin, Alan Embree, Matt Mantei, Mike Myers, John Halama, and
Blaine Neal), by comparison, posted the following totals in 2005:
20-21, 5.06 ERA, 329 1/3 IP, 185 ER, 118 BBs, 222 K's, 34 HRs allowed.
They fanned 6.07 batters per nine innings.
The new additions
(Seánez, Tavárez, and Riske) in 2005: 12-8, 3.05 ERA, 200 2/3 IP, 68
ER, 56 BBs, 179 K's, 21 HRs allowed. They fanned 8.03 batters per nine
innings."
All these things considered, you have to be excited with our pitching staff, and when you take a look at our much improved defense, it's easy to see losses of last year turning into wins this year. Alex Gonzalez is a vast defensive improvement over Renteria, Lowell won a Gold Glove last year (as did Varitek) and just the option of having JT Snow in the later innings gives the Sox a solid infield.
Our offense is not going to produce as many runs as the Yankees, however I don't think we'll be too far off. Coco and Loretta are getting on base and hitting for .400+ average this spring. Their ability to get on base is key with Ortiz and Ramirez hitting right behind them, the most feared 1, 2 punch in MLB. The bottom half of our line-up isn't going to be as strong as years past, esp. with the absence of Bill Mueller, however Trot, Tek, and Youk all should be able to get key hits and wear out opposing hitters. Any loss in offense is going to be made up with defense and pitching.
The Jays are an improved team no doubt, however I don't see the depth there to really make me worried. Do you think they'd win 95 games with their number one starter, and closer out? Me neither. They're getting closer, but probably are a year or two away from being a true worry. I see the AL East being a battle between the Sox & Yanks yet again, with the Red Sox hopefully pulling out their first division title since 1995. This all may be too much talk, too early but it's hard to hedge the excitement when we're only five days away...
